In this April issue of the Health and Welfare Forum, we explore the theme of “The Social Risks Engendered by Changes in Technology, Population, and Climate.” Welfare states have grown since the last century, protecting their citizens from traditional social risks, such as in unemployment, old age, industrial accident, and ill-health, as well as from new social risks concerning, among other things, care needs and working poverty. Now, a quarter into the 21st century, humanity finds itself confronting three megatrends: technological advancement, demographic shifts, and climate change. For now, it is hard to get the measure of what their impact might be on society. However, as has been suggested as a possibility, they may work in combination to mitigate, alter, or intensify existing social risks while concurrently giving rise to unprecedented, so-called “third-generation” social risks. By social risks, we mean, going by the definition given by van Kersbergen and Vis in Comparative Welfare State Politics (2014), “probability of a welfare loss associated with one’s position in society and the life cycle.” In this April issue, our contributors examine how these three megatrends, acting singly, in interaction, or through the mediating effect of one on another, may engender third-generation social risks and what forms these risks might take. Admittedly, the scope of the quest on hand is too broad for our discussion to be as precise in detail as, say, studies focusing on specific challenges. That notwithstanding, we have put together the present issue in the hope of coming to grips with the transformations characteristic of our times―their direction, pace, and impact. The comparison may be likened to that between a large-scale landscape and a miniature still life. I hope that readers will find in this issue a field sketch that can serve as a reference in shaping long-term plans and visions for the Korean welfare state.

Technology has propelled mankind’s progress across history, while at times threatening the survival of humanity. This article examines the social risks that technological changes pose to six areas―poverty/inequality, employment, housing/regional affairs, health/life expectancy, care/work-family balance, and public finance―and explores how these risks may come about in varying ways across the spectrum of technological innovations. In the first place, technological changes may affect income inequality, but the extent to which they do so depends on institutional conditions. Regarding employment, the predominant view is that technological advancement is unlikely to lead to a decline in total employment. Advances in health care technologies may have both positive and negative effects on health outcomes. Adopting technologies could facilitate flex-time and telecommuting, contributing to better work-family balance, but it has also been reported to have downsides, such as blurring the demarcation lines between work and home life. The recent digital transition has led to the emergence of “third-generation” social risks, including cyber risks―such as personal information breaches and hacking―and the issue of global digital workers remaining excluded from institutional protection.

Population changes are a global phenomenon, a concern hardly unique to Korea. What is particularly concerning for Korea, however, is that since the beginning of the 2020s, its population has been declining. The family structure is changing, with household sizes becoming smaller and the percentage of one-person households increasing. In addition, the issue of migrants emerges as warranting attention in Korea, where, with migration flows into it having become substantial since the 2000s, considerations are needed as to whether migrants experience greater disorientation from sociocultural unfamiliarity than in other countries. A population can be studied in a static frame, but it is a dynamic system, ever changing, constantly undergoing births, deaths, and migration. Because population changes are both the product and the cause of social phenomena, it is very difficult to establish causal pathways between population shifts and social risks. Nor is the way a given population change impacts society uniform across different social conditions. However, if past studies are any guide, ongoing population changes are likely to slow Korea’s economic growth and increase social costs. To what extent migrant populations will mitigate this impact remains uncertain. Population changes overall are going in the direction of placing considerable financial pressure on the Korean welfare state. The fiscal impact of population changes, if not kept monitored and controlled early, could raise concerns about the sustainability of the welfare state, potentially hindering necessary welfare expansion. Efforts must begin proactively toward restructuring welfare expenditures.

Climate change, in considerable part a consequence of industrialization and economic activities, and especially of carbon emissions, leading in various ways to human “diswelfare,” is considered a major contributor to a new breed of social risks that requires policy action at both the national and international levels. In fact, existing domestic and international case studies suggest that climate change is highly likely to have a negative impact on the real economy and employment. It could also drive up the prices of essential commodities like groceries, effectively reducing real income. Furthermore, climate change, which affects socially vulnerable groups more than others, is likely to exacerbate poverty and inequality. Addressing these climate-driven social risks would require further interdisciplinary research―both theoretical and empirical―and actionable policy strategies built on it.

This article examines how and in what specific ways technological, demographic, and climate changes, through their interactions, give rise to new forms of social risk. To conduct this analysis, we reviewed relevant literature. The interaction of these three changes is dynamic and complex, amounting at times to paradoxical effects. For instance, while technological advances contribute to climate change, they also offer potential solutions. Several pathways are identified through which the three changes together bring about social risks, each mediating and acting on the others. Regarding the interaction of technological change and demographic shifts, one effect of technological advancement in the context of the rapidly aging population has been to mitigate health deterioration among older adults. Yet, technological advancement also gives rise to new challenges, as it did in the social rights of a category of workers known as global tele-migrants. Future policymaking must incorporate a holistic approach to these three major changes and a comprehensive understanding of their workings.