This study seeks to assess the population impact of cash transfer policies, particularly childbirth grants and farmer’s basic income support scheme using Synthetic Control Methods (SCM). Childbirth grants are evaluated based on the number of births and the fertility rate of married women of reproductive age, while farmer’s basic income support is assessed in terms of the number of farmers. The analysis results indicated an increase in birth rate in Gangwon Province, Gwangju Metropolitan City, Daejeon Metropolitan City following the implementation of childbirth grants, while no significant effect was observed in other cities and provinces. Gangwon Province, Gwangju and Daejeon Metropolitan City show positive effects despite differences in support levels, with Gangwon Province experiencing sustained increases due to policy changes in subsequent years. However, if some provinces and local authorities exhibited increases in birth rates after the implementation of childbirth support grants, the effect was mostly short-term. The effect of childbirth support funds in local authority showed a similar trend. In local authority in small metropolitan areas where the amount of childbirth support allowance is small, the effect of such funds was found to be minimal. However, in medium-sized cities and rural areas, short-term effects were observed. In the case of farmer subsidies, initial increases are followed by subsequent decreases in the number of farmers, indicating limited long-term effectiveness.

This study aims to develop KIHASA SIM, a dynamic microsimulation model, to assess the effects of public pension reforms. To enhance relevance and accuracy, KIHASA SIM is constructed by extensively updating and reorganizing DOSA, a microsimulation model developed by the Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs in 2016. It uses a 2% sample (998,459 individuals) from the 2015 Population and Housing Census data as its base set. The model integrates a wide array of micro-data from Korea to simulate key life events, including childbirth, marriage, divorce, education, earnings, public pension, asset accumulation, and mortality.
We verify the simulation results by comparing them with the income distribution and economic activity transition probabilities observed in the Korean Labor Panel data, confirming their similarity. We also confirm that this model's long-term financial outlook is similar to the results of the National Pension Service's 5th actuarial forecast.
These results underscore the practical utility of KIHASA SIM, demonstrating its capability to provide insightful analyses of the nuanced effects of pension reforms. This validated model is essential for policymakers and researchers in developing informed, long-term management strategies for public pensions.